Our 2008/2009 budget exercise indicated that our national debt has now passed the trillion dollar mark. As Captain Kirk of Star Trek in space would say, "We've never been this far before."

Let us bear in mind that when Jamaica had a paper dollar bill, although it was of greater value than the US dollar, generally they both were about the same measurements with a length of 6.14 inches and 2.61 inches wide. Today our dollar is a coin about the size of the then British colonial three pence but of less value.

With these measurements in mind, the Endowment for Human Development Foundation states that one trillion one dollar United States bills laid end-to-end measures 96,906,656 miles - exceeding the distance from the earth to the sun, or laid side by side would cover a land area of 3,992 square miles - nearly 95 per cent the size of Jamaica; stacked, it would reach 25 per cent [67,866 miles] of the way to the moon. It's a lot of money!

Can anyone imagine the average family living off 10 per cent or even 15 per cent of their weekly earnings?

PAY IT BACK

Imagine all that money was once ours. We spent it! Now we owe it - all of it. We now have to pay it back - every red cent, plus the interest. To make matters worse, our debt-to-GDP ratio regrettably, is about 126 per cent, in a society noted for corruption with minimal economic growth, wracked by pervasive crime, with the highest murder rate on earth and still no solution in sight.

So far we have been allocating about 55 per cent of collected revenue to pay against the national debt, and the public service requires about a further 30 per cent, leaving just about 10-15 per cent of revenue to be applied to the annual budget. To meet the whole range of national services - health, education, etc - we are compelled annually to seek grants and loans to finance it. Can anyone imagine the average family living off 10 per cent or even 15 per cent of their weekly earnings?

In general terms the obvious solution, which should be somehow reflected in our national budgets, is to:

1. Review and revise the tax system, spreading the burden equitably and ensuring that all revenue that is to be collected is collected.

2. Widen the revenue collection grid by a serious national drive for consistent socio-economic development and growth, evidenced by the ongoing creation of meaningful jobs together with facilitated small business and community development programmes.

3. Develop a culture of personal entrepreneurship expressed through increasing numbers of focused small/medium-sized businesses [guided by a detailed national strategic Plan] - and the steering of more tertiary graduates into this sector.

4. Greater emphasis on maximising the nation's inherent wealth through a focused, fully funded scientific research programme - our plants, for example.

5. Review and fully staff and equip the public sector essential services [police, teachers, nurses, etc].

6. Reduction of the number of ministries and their agencies to maximise greater efficiencies through the advantages of information and communication technologies [ICT].

On a technical basis we would have completed item 6 above by also calling for the reduction of the swollen ranks of the civil service which services the several ministries and their agencies. Regrettably, however, the dilemma is that our economy is so skewed that public servants represent a substantial portion of the consumer market, and the reduction of this sector would at this point cause serious dislocation to both the society and the economy.

The general philosophy which should therefore underscore our national budget must be a consistent drive for socio-economic development. The creation of wealth and jobs will maximise revenue to reduce the national debt and, increasingly, better able to finance the annual budget. This has to be the underlying focus of all our national budgets if socio-economic development and the realisation of our full potential, individually and collectively, are to be seriously considered. How else can we also weather the socio-economic storms like that currently on our horizon if our economy is not on a firm footing?

THE GATHERING STORM

Our problems are not only grave but made even more complicated by the gathering socio-economic storm bearing down on us, over which we have no control.

The recession in the United States - the world's largest market - has worldwide negative consequences, including Jamaica's open and vulnerable economy. Our economy is largely anchored in the tourism industry which is likely to be a major casualty of the recession, as US consumer spending is being significantly reduced. This is further compounded by the fall in the value of the US dollar and rapid rise in the price of oil, which is reflected in the spiralling cost of airline tickets and literally every consumer item.

The price of oil, now about US$135 a barrel and climbing, is also a major challenge to Jamaica where, regrettably, as I stated in the December 9, 2007 issue of The Sunday Gleaner, our public transport policy is heavily oriented towards the ever increasingly expensive road transportation. A realistic transport and energy policy is still lacking. On the international scene, there is no indication as to how long the US recession or the continuing rise in the price of oil will continue.

A confirmed agreement with the European Union on the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) brings with it substantial challenges for our entire economy. We must succeed as failure is too earth-shatteringly dismal to even consider.

The upward spiralling cost of food and increasing scarcity worldwide, due in part to the increase use of food supplies for biofuel, threatens the entire world - including Jamaica - for a long time to come. Already this so-called 'food tsunami' has fuelled food riots in over 30 countries, and the United Nations has declared an international food crisis.

challenges

The challenges facing Jamaica are urgent, enormous and are not short-term. How will our fixed income and pensioners survive?

There is no way around these problems; our Government must not only sensibly and unflinchingly confront them, but it must also take the hard decisions and political sacrifices to put us on a sure path to real socio-economic development.

But are we confronting the really critical issues on which our future rests? The 2008/2009 budget is essentially an accountant's budget with quite neatly compiled figures and seemingly innocent of its inflationary tendency and based on quite optimistic expectations - some of which already seems questionable. Of course, it includes important items, each of great relevance to sectors of the public.

If, given the circumstances, we are really to progress, there are hard decisions to take and political sacrifices to be made. It is the avoidance of such decisions and sacrifices which has given us, every year for the last 20 to 30 years, accountant's budgets which fail to address the urgent need for socio-economic development as the way out of our suffocating difficulties.

accounts ministry

In fact, our Ministry of Finance has for decades been acting largely as an accounts ministry. In step with this, the once august Planning Institute of Jamaica had been subsumed as a de facto department of the ministry with a focus on Jamaica's external loan accounts. It is hoped that its recent transfer to the Prime Minister's Office will see it reverting to and succeeding in its proper role which is enshrined in its very name.

The gathering storm just described, we hoped, would have been seized in this budget as an opportunity to once and for all begin to deal with the key issues. In spite of the insufficiency of funding and the many competing needs, a return to basics and a proper approach are not only cost-effective but essential to maximise scarce resources.

The focus of the budget, however, is on immediacies and ignores putting forward any clear vision of where we are going and from which we can be inspired, gain courage and an urge to participate. Instead, it foists a deepening of the addiction of gambling.

The former minister of national security, Peter Phillips, in an article in the May 11 issue of The Sunday Gleaner warns that there is a clear distinction between "the politics of populism and the politics of development", and correctly insists on the urgent need to set aside the former and vigorously apply the latter if we are seriously to address the real needs of our country.

Don Robotham in the same Sunday Gleaner issue examines how best to deal with crime and violence - a major cost factor in every sense, stating that "lived morality", i.e., the consistent moral quality of our lives, is an essential required reality in positively influencing the crucial youth sector of the population.

These are all not really budget items; more essentially, they are basics to live by - a guiding vision, a commitment to national socio-economic development; less spin, more seriousness and truthfulness in how we all live and work. [458-1,474]

treading water

In continuing to avoid a focus on socio-economic development, we continue to be figuratively treading water just to survive; any forward move largely being the result of the tide. Treading water may be crucial to stay alive but moving to swim to shore is far better.

We need truly to take charge of our destiny, moving from the slave plantation through colonialism to the realisation, at long last, of our full potential as Jamaicans.

"It is not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing". - Chinese Proverb